Steady Oscillation of Crude Oil Price
Last week, WTI and Brent prices rose to $83.75 and $85.8 a barrel, up $2.1 and $1.5 respectively, due to strong demand support. Last week, diesel inventories in the U.S. declined significantly, mainly because refineries reduced inventories to avoid inventory taxes at the end of recent years, while industrial demand in the U.S. was also booming, and China was experiencing a surge in diesel demand. Next week, oil prices will be supported by good sales on Thanksgiving Day in the United States, but debt crises in Ireland and other countries will have a negative impact. But we don't think Ireland's debt problem will be a decisive one. Although China has tightened its credit crunch policy, demand is still strong. Seasonal demand for fuel oil and reduced inventories, as well as U.S. consumption and industrial recovery, will provide strong support for oil demand. Domestic price control tends to be stringent, while the suspension of natural gas price increases and the suspension of product oil price adjustments will continue. It is expected that the shortage of diesel oil will gradually disappear with the weakening of power restrictions. Natural gas price adjustments will be restarted at least after March next spring. In terms of stock allocation, we believe that oil recovery service and equipment enterprises and resource-based small and medium-sized market value enterprises, which have benefited from the rising oil prices for a long time, will get excess returns.
2. The price of high energy-consuming chemical products will continue to pull back
The price of chemical products rose by more than 2% last week: acetic acid 3.75%, glyphosate 13.95%, pyridine 2.43%, PTMEG 6.46%.
Last week, the prices of chemical products fell by more than 2% in light soda-4.73%, heavy soda-2.91%, natural rubber-3.64%, bisphenol A-2.49%, methanol-11.14%, dimethyl ether-11.11%, MDI (M200) -2.67%, TDI-3.33%, BDO-2.87%, PTA-3.13%, ethylene glycol-4.79%, polyester chip-4.80%, polyester staple fiber-14.21%, polyester POY-5.41%, polyester DTY-5.95%, polyester fiber-11.11%, polyester fiber-6.00%, FDI-cotton, etc. Spend 6.86%.
With the weakening of energy saving and emission reduction, the output of soda ash, caustic soda, methanol, dimethyl ether and other industries began to recover, and the supply and demand situation tended to ease. Among them, the pre-hoarding and selling further increased the pressure on the price of soda. Last week, light soda fell 99 yuan to 1989 yuan/ton, heavy soda dropped 64 yuan to 2143 yuan/ton, methanol fell 370 yuan to 2950 yuan/ton, dimethyl ether fell 600 yuan to 4800 yuan/ton, and caustic soda price also fell slightly. With the weakening of energy saving and emission reduction policies, especially power limitation policies, the situation of industry supply reduction caused by short-term energy saving and emission reduction policies is no longer the case. The price of chemical products with a large increase in the earlier period will gradually be reversed, and the industry's profitability will gradually return to the normal level. Relevant listed companies: Shuanghuan Science and Technology, Shandong Haihua, Qingdao Alkali Industry, Binhua Shares, Yuanxing Energy.